This was supposed to be the day the House of Commons dramatically wrested control from the government. In the end, it turned out to be a bit of a damp squib.
None of the eight options MPs were voting on managed to garner a majority. The real fireworks of the evening happened away from the chamber, at a meeting of the European Research Group of Tory MPs, where the deputy chair, Steve Baker, reportedly said of parliament: “I could tear this place down and bulldoze it into the river.”
Yet even though the only takeaway from tonight is that MPs don’t appear to be in favour of anything, these votes provide a critical insight into what might happen next.
Four important things can be gleaned from the indicative votes. First, it’s game on when it comes to a confirmatory referendum. With 268 votes – over 20 more than the number of votes May managed to get for her deal at the second meaningful vote – it was the most popular option of the night. Sure, it was opposed by 295 MPs. But after another week of uncertainty and if Theresa May were to accept a referendum on her deal as the price of getting it through Parliament, it looks far from an unlikely outcome.
Second, there’s been a lot of talk about a soft Brexit – “common market 2.0”, with the UK remaining part of the customs union and the single market – being the option that MPs are most likely to rally round. Wednesday night’s results show this was an optimistic assessment. It only got 188 votes in favour.
Third, the House of Commons has in the past expressed that it is against no deal, but been reluctant to take any meaningful action to prevent no deal. And so it proved when it came to Joanna Cherry’s amendment to revoke article 50 if no deal is imminent.
In the end MPs simply weren’t prepared to back something that mentioned revoking article 50 – regardless of the fact that almost 6 million members of the public have signed a petition calling for just that. Some MPs may change their minds the closer we get to a cliff edge. But Wednesday night shows that crashing out remains a live possibility.
Fourth, there were a significant number of MPs who expressed that they’d be happy with no deal. And within that group, there is a much smaller group of Conservative hardliners who will never vote for May’s deal.
The DUP has remained steadfast in its opposition to her deal. But even if it were to swing behind it, once you take into account that hard rump of Tories, May is likely to need the votes of at least 15-20 Labour MPs to get it through.
And this is where May’s real problem lies. There is no compromise that brings together the likes of Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg, and a sufficient number of Labour MPs, because both groups want fundamentally different things. The Rees-Moggs of this world see the Tory leadership prize as the chance for a hard Brexiter to shape their ideal future relationship with the EU. But Labour MPs will only back May’s deal in sufficient numbers if they can extract watertight guarantees of a soft Brexit that protects workers’ rights.
So parliament may have taken back control. But not much has changed – for now. It’s hard to see how May can get her deal through unless she does something fairly drastic.
There is one route open to her, though, judging by the indicative votes: she can offer a referendum on her deal in order to win more MPs round. The big question no one yet knows the answer to is: will she choose that path?
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